Want to know who would probably win the presidential election? Read this.

The tension continues to mount for both the electorates and the aspirants as the 2015 presidential election draws closer.

But with less than 25 days to the big one, political analysts have continued to look at the chances of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) led by President Goodluck Jonathan and the All Progressives Congress (APC) led by General Muhammadu Buahri in the upcoming election.

In this report, Adedayo Ademuwagun takes a look at the 6 geopolitical zones in the country and the chances aspirants have at the 2015 presidential elections

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Goodluck Jonathan soundly defeated Muhammadu Buhari last time and Buhari lost his third election. However, a lot has affected the comparative popularity of these two candidates over the last four years, and some of these things have significantly changed the equation. So who will win it this time? Is it Buhari or Jonathan?

Here’s a preview of the forthcoming presidential election based on the 2011 election and the events that followed.

1. North Central

Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Abuja

Jonathan beat Buhari in this zone last time. In Kogi he won by 71% and won 64% in Kwara. Buhari won only one state here.

This zone could swing either way next month because it’s neither leaning left nor right at the moment. Either Jonathan or Buhari could win here or they could split the vote share. It’s anybody’s game.

2. North East

Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba, Borno, Yobe

Jonathan won in Adamawa and Taraba but lost heavily in other states in this area. Buhari grabbed 81% in Bauchi for example, compared to Jonathan’s 16%.

This place is the stronghold of the Boko Haram. There’s been a bloody insurgency in this zone since Jonathan became president and it’s worsened the whole time he was in charge. Jonathan hasn’t been able to stop the bloodshed. Thousands have been forced to flee their homes and thousands have died by the insurgency. Two years ago Jonathan declared a state of emergency here, but it didn’t yield the desired results and the killers have continued to terrorise the area.

Jonathan won two of the states in 2011 and Buhari won the rest, but this time Buhari has the upper hand. He’s likely to sweep votes in the northeast.

3. North West

Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto

Buhari swept this zone and Jonathan lost in all the states. This zone is Jonathan’s worst nightmare. He couldn’t muster a win anywhere here in the last election and it’s going to be even more difficult this time given the instability in the north. Buhari will probably take this area again like he did the last time. This place is his home.

4. South East

Abia Anambra Enugu Imo Ebonyi

It was a walkover for Jonathan in the southeast. He won in Imo by 98% and won 99% in Abia. Buhari simply had no chance here.

Jonathan’s wife is from this zone and a lot of Igbos still support him, plus the Igbos and the northerners have a long history of animosity. So Jonathan might benefit from this when the Igbos cast their ballots next month.

5. South South

Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Akwa Ibom

This is Jonathan’s strongest area. Buhari barely got 1% in any state in this zone last time. Jonathan took 98% in Rivers and nearly 100% in Bayelsa. So even if he loses everywhere, he’s least likely to lose in this area. His people will probably try to keep him at the top for the next four years, and so it will be most difficult for Buhari to do well in this zone.

6. South West

Ekiti, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Osun

Buhari didn’t even come second in the southwest last time. It was a contest between the ACN and the PDP. In Ekiti for instance, Jonathan won 52%, Ribadu won 45% and Buhari managed a mere 1%. Jonathan topped everyone in this zone.

The ACN and Buhari’s CPC tried to work out a merger before that election. CPC was popular in the north and ACN was popular in the west, so they would have formed a stronger opposition against the ruling party. However, the merger didn’t happen until after the election.

With that merger giving rise to the APC, it’s almost certain the southwest will vote for Buhari, because most of the states have APC governments and the party is by far more popular than PDP in the region. Buhari barely registered any support in this region last time, but now he’s the leading candidate in the region. Now that’s something a merger can do for one candidate.